AGP Executive Report

Chad Border Security: A drone strike hit a Sudanese border market near the Chad frontier, killing at least 14 people (mostly women), underscoring how the Sudan war’s violence is spilling across Lake Chad and into Chad-adjacent areas. Lake Chad Counterterrorism: In Nigeria’s Borno, a CJTF commander was killed when an ISWAP-linked IED destroyed his vehicle near Baga along the Lake Chad axis, showing militants’ continued focus on pro-government forces. US-Nigeria Terror Cooperation: US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says Trump ordered the Pentagon to prioritize protecting Christians in Nigeria; he links US-Nigerian operations in the Lake Chad Basin to the killing of ISIS’s second-in-command, Abu-Bilal al-Minuki. Regional Instability Warning: Security officials warn of an imminent herder invasion into Nigeria’s southwest, with fighters reportedly moving from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkina Faso—raising pressure on border control and local defense. Humanitarian Rights Watch: HRW accuses the UAE of recruiting and routing foreign mercenaries via Emirati infrastructure to support Sudan’s RSF, adding to mounting accountability pressure around the conflict.

Sudan–Chad Border Fallout: Survivors from the al-Fashir assault in western Sudan told Reuters they endured captivity, beatings, and theft before fleeing into Chad’s border town of Tine, as the RSF offensive continues to be linked by the UN to “hallmarks of genocide.” Human Rights & Mercenaries: Human Rights Watch accuses the UAE of covertly recruiting and routing Colombian mercenaries through Emirati military infrastructure to support Sudan’s RSF, which the UAE denies. Lake Chad Security: A CJTF commander in Borno was killed when an IED detonated near Baga along the Lake Chad axis, underscoring ISWAP’s roadside attacks on pro-government forces. Chad Emergency Measures: Chad extended its state of emergency in Lake Province, as insecurity pressures the region. Regional Aid: Qatar Charity sent emergency food aid to Chad, aiming to support communities affected by regional instability. International Military Posture: The U.S. and Poland marked completion of a major deployable air base system at Powidz, signaling deeper NATO readiness in Europe. Health Milestone: Guinea worm cases hit a record low—only 10 human cases reported in 2025—bringing eradication closer.

Borno Security Shock: A CJTF commander in Borno was killed when an ISWAP-planted IED exploded near Baga, underscoring how insurgents keep hitting security forces along the Lake Chad axis. Eid-El-Kabir Politics: Nigeria’s Tinubu used the holiday to declare the “dark tunnel” is over, tying sacrifice to economic stabilization while admitting insecurity still persists. Mali Junta Shakeup: Mali’s latest internal power moves keep roiling the Sahel, as jihadist groups adapt and tighten pressure around key areas. Chad Emergency Extended: Chad’s parliament approved extending the state of emergency in Lake Province for three more months amid incursions and cross-border movement. Regional Integration Push: Congo announced visa-free access for all Africans from January 2027, adding momentum to continent-wide free movement. Health Win: Guinea worm hit a historic low—only 10 human cases reported in 2025. California Context: Early ballot returns in California’s governor race are lagging, with Black voters slightly underrepresented in early mail returns.

Eid-economy message: President Tinubu told Nigerians on Eid-el-Kabir that the “dark tunnel” of reforms is over, claiming a more stable economy and pledging reforms will keep improving security and jobs—while admitting attacks by terrorists and bandits continue. Counterterror momentum: The latest political line leans on the Nigeria–U.S. push in the Lake Chad Basin, including the reported killing of ISIS leader Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, as proof of deeper operational cooperation. Border-security debate: Nigeria’s insecurity is again tied to porous frontiers, with renewed focus on how surveillance, coordination, and “operational control” could plug gaps—especially as Mali’s jihadists adapt and expand. Regional pressure points: Chad extended its Lake Province state of emergency for three months over incursions and cross-border movement. Debt watch: Cameroon plans heavy borrowing through 2028 despite debt-risk concerns. Africa-wide angle: China’s hybrid rice diplomacy continues to be showcased via Guinea’s yield gains, while Morocco doubles down on its “blue economy” and port strategy.

Chad Security Clampdown: Chad’s parliament has approved extending the state of emergency in Lake Province for three more months, citing Boko Haram attacks, armed incursions, and cross-border movement—meant to boost defense capacity and tighten movement controls. Nigeria–US Counterterrorism: The big regional headline stays the same: reports say US and Nigerian forces killed ISIS/ISWAP second-in-command Abu Bilal al-Minuki in Borno, with both governments calling it a major proof of cooperation. Border Security Politics: A new homeland security push in Nigeria puts border control at the center, with a historian warning that once the “fence” breaks, arms and ideologies pour in. Diplomacy in Motion: Nigeria’s ambassador Kayode Are has presented credentials to Trump, while VP Shettima heads to Benin’s inauguration—signals of security and trade priorities moving in parallel. Humanitarian Pressure in Chad: Qatar Charity sent emergency food aid to Massaguet, as aid groups warn of severe hunger risk for millions during the June–August lean season. Justice Spotlight: HRW and ICJ marked the 2016 Habré conviction in Senegal as a landmark for universal justice.

ISIS Blow to West Africa: Nigeria and the U.S. say they killed Abu Bilal al-Minuki (ISWAP’s second-in-command) in a joint strike in Metele, Borno—an operation Trump called “meticulously planned” and Tinubu framed as “effective collaboration,” with wider implications for the Sahel and Lake Chad terror map. Security Push: In the same security drumbeat, troops repelled a cross-border ISWAP/Boko Haram attempt in Kirawa, neutralising 12 and forcing attackers back into Cameroon. Diplomacy in Motion: Nigeria’s new ambassador to Washington, Kayode Are, presented credentials to Trump, signalling a tighter security-and-intelligence relationship. Chad Justice Moment: Human rights groups marked the 2016 Habré conviction as a landmark for universal justice—10 years on, the case still reverberates globally. Cameroon National Day & Defence Open Days: Yaounde’s celebrations and MINDEF’s open days showcased troop review and public-facing defence recruitment. Humanitarian Relief in Chad: Qatar Charity sent food aid to Massaguet, targeting families facing acute hunger. Africa Day Culture: South African radio stars used Africa Day to spotlight Ubuntu, creativity, and music as the continent’s real power.

Diplomatic Reset: Nigeria’s new U.S. ambassador, Kayode Are, formally presented his credentials to President Donald Trump at the White House, kicking off his posting after Senate confirmation. Counterterrorism Momentum: The week’s biggest security headline stays the reported killing of ISWAP’s top commander, Abu Bilal al-Minuki (al-Minuki), in a joint Nigeria–U.S. operation in Metele, Borno—praised by both governments as a major blow to the terror network. Regional Security Pressure: Troops repelled a cross-border ISWAP/Boko Haram attack in Borno’s Kirawa axis, neutralizing 12, while separate operations in the Lake Chad theatre saw arrests of suspected female collaborators. Chad Humanitarian Relief: Qatar Charity sent emergency food aid to Massaguet near N’Djamena—310 baskets for about 2,170 people—as Chad faces rising hunger ahead of the lean season. US Immigration Shift: Trump’s administration moved to halt “adjustment of status” inside the U.S. for most green-card seekers, forcing many to apply from abroad.

Diplomatic Credentials: Nigeria’s Ambassador to the US, Kayode Are, presented his letters of credence to President Donald Trump at the White House, with other ambassadors including Chad’s also in the lineup. Regional Politics: Vice-President Kashim Shettima is in Cotonou to represent Tinubu at Benin’s president-elect Romuald Wadagni inauguration, with Nigeria stressing trade, border cooperation, and security ties. US Immigration Shift: Trump’s administration ordered most temporary visa holders seeking green cards to leave the US and apply from abroad, sharply limiting “adjustment of status” inside the country. Counterterrorism in the Lake Chad Basin: Nigerian troops repelled a cross-border ISWAP/Boko Haram attack in Borno’s Kirawa axis, neutralizing 12 and seizing weapons, while Shettima warned that progress against terrorists isn’t final victory. Chad Humanitarian Push: Qatar Charity sent emergency food aid to Chad’s Massaguet area—310 baskets for about 2,170 people—amid warnings of severe food insecurity. Security Disruption in Nigeria: Gunmen abducted an INEC official during an ADC primary in Cross River, and Oyo police denied claims that kidnapped students and teachers had been rescued.

Humanitarian Push: Qatar Charity sent an emergency food convoy to Chad’s Massaguet area—310 food baskets for about 2,170 people—aimed at families hit by rising hunger and malnutrition as over 3 million face acute food insecurity in the June–August lean season. Security Cross-Border: In Nigeria’s Borno, troops repelled an attempted ISWAP/Boko Haram cross-border infiltration from the Cameroon axis, killing 12 attackers and forcing others back. Counterterror Arrests: Operation Hadin Kai also arrested suspected female Boko Haram/ISWAP collaborators in Kukawa—one accused of carrying supplies to a terrorist son, with food packs and hijabs seized. Politics in Chad: Opposition leader Succes Masra’s appeal was rejected, keeping him jailed after a politically charged conviction. Oyo School Kidnapping Noise: Oyo police denied claims that abducted students and teachers were rescued, saying victims are still in captivity and operations continue.

Humanitarian Push in Chad: Qatar Charity sent 310 food baskets to Massaguet near N’Djamena, targeting about 2,170 people as Chad’s lean-season hunger crisis worsens, with estimates warning over 3 million facing acute food insecurity. Borno Security Crackdown: Nigeria’s Operation Hadin Kai repelled an attempted ISWAP/Boko Haram cross-border attack in Borno’s Kirawa axis, killing 12 attackers and pushing others back into Cameroon, while separate checkpoints saw arrests of alleged female collaborators accused of moving supplies to insurgents. ISIS Leadership Shock: President Tinubu confirmed Abu-Bilal al-Minuki—described as ISIS’s second-in-command—was killed in a joint US-Nigeria operation, a major blow that keeps pressure on the Lake Chad terror network. Oyo School Kidnapping Row: Defence HQ denied downplaying the Oyo abduction, insisting the attackers were linked to Boko Haram’s JAS faction; police also rejected claims victims had been rescued. Morocco-EU Migration Pressure: Morocco’s mass deportations of sub-Saharan migrants continue, with EU cooperation tied to its migration “externalization” push. Chad Politics: Opposition leader Succes Masra will stay jailed after Chad’s supreme court rejected his appeal, amid broader sentencing of opposition figures.

Security Crackdown in Nigeria: Bauchi police arrested a 26-year-old man, Bashar Aliyu, over the alleged stabbing death of his 70-year-old grandfather. In Borno, Operation Hadin Kai also nabbed a 50-year-old woman, Kellu Abba, accused of supplying logistics to her ISWAP-linked son, with food packs and hijabs seized. Terrorism Pressure, No “Final Win” Yet: Vice President Kashim Shettima warned that degrading terrorist capabilities isn’t the end of the fight, urging sustained vigilance and better intelligence and civil-military cooperation. Oyo Kidnapping Claims Denied: Oyo police pushed back on online reports that abducted students and teachers had been rescued, saying victims are still in captivity and operations continue. Chad Politics: Chad’s opposition leader Succes Masra will stay jailed after his appeal was rejected by the supreme court. Regional Context: Saudi Arabia condemned a terrorist attack on a military base in Chad, while Libya’s stalled politics continues to draw US “managed stability” proposals.

Oyo School Kidnapping Fallout: Oyo State Police are pushing back hard on viral claims that abducted students and teachers in Orire LGA were rescued, saying the victims are still in captivity as joint operations continue and warning against fake news that could derail the search. Lake Chad Insurgency Pressure: In Borno, Operation Hadin Kai arrested a 50-year-old woman accused of supplying ISWAP with logistics, including food packs and hijabs, while troops also keep up arrests of suspected Boko Haram/ISWAP collaborators. Defence HQ Pushes Back: Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters denied downplaying the Oyo incident, insisting the attack was carried out by Boko Haram-linked JAS terrorists. Chad Security Diplomacy: Saudi Arabia condemned a terrorist attack on a military base in Chad, sending condolences and support. Regional Security Economy: A new report frames Chad’s kidnapping-for-ransom trade as a growing transnational business tied to border insecurity—raising the stakes for the whole region.

Chad Politics: Opposition heavyweight Succes Masra stays behind bars after Chad’s supreme court rejected his appeal, keeping alive a wider crackdown that has also seen other opposition figures sentenced. Nigeria Security: In the North-East, the Nigerian Air Force hit suspected terrorist logistics hubs in Borno and Adamawa, while Boko Haram attacks in Borno killed 33 fishermen and loggers—a grim reminder that “progress” isn’t the same as victory. Lake Chad & Counterterrorism: The Gang Suppression Force in Haiti is moving toward operations next June, with Chadian troops already deployed—showing Chad’s security footprint is expanding beyond its borders. Maritime Economy: Across West and Central Africa, port upgrades are the new refrain: officials warn outdated infrastructure is choking trade, and MSC is pushing Kribi as an alternative gateway for Chad and the region. Health/Global: Gilead renewed its WHO push against visceral leishmaniasis, including support reaching Chad.

Boko Haram’s latest killings: In Nigeria’s Borno, Boko Haram fighters reportedly shot dead 27 fishermen in Mafa and six loggers in Dikwa, with more attacks in the same communities leaving dozens dead and others missing. Counterterror momentum—plus controversy: Nigeria’s military says joint operations have hit ISWAP hard, including a reported multi-day push that killed 175 militants, while civil society groups argue the real story is coordination and intelligence—others warn Nigeria’s security sector is still plagued by confusion and conflicting claims. Lake Chad Basin focus: The Lake Chad Recovery Project (RESILAC2) is expanding to reach 125,890 people by 2028, as donors and partners keep funding resilience work around the region. Sudan diplomacy under pressure: Sudan’s Burhan says he’s open to talks with the UAE only if Abu Dhabi stops backing the RSF, with ceasefire “not imminent.” Ports and trade: Nigeria’s ports chief warns Africa can’t grow with obsolete infrastructure, pushing deep-sea upgrades and faster, digital logistics.

School Attacks in Oyo: Nigeria is reeling after coordinated gunmen hit three schools in Oyo State, killing an assistant headmaster and abducting scores of pupils—an ugly reminder that “Operation Amotekun” hasn’t stopped the spread of fear into the Southwest. Borno Killings: In the northeast, Boko Haram attacked fishermen and loggers, killing 33 in two raids in Mafa and Dikwa. Counterterror Push: Nigeria and the US say they’ve killed at least 175 IS-linked militants across Borno, including senior ISWAP figures, as Abuja leans into tighter coordination after the high-profile killing of Abu-Bilal al-Minuki. Ports for Trade: Nigeria cleared five deep-sea port projects for investment—Badagry, Olokola, Ibom, Bakassi and Bonny—aiming to reclaim over 70% of cargo currently moving elsewhere. Chad in Haiti: Chad’s troops are part of the Haiti Gang Suppression Force buildup, expected to be operational next June.

Haiti Security Build-Out: The UN-backed Gang Suppression Force (GSF) is expected to go operational next June, with about 750 Chadian troops already in place and a target of roughly 2,000 deployed by July—funded by a $232m trust fund (with $180m available) plus $400m in UN money for troop pay and mission logistics. Sudan Accountability Fight: RSF has denied reports that Abu Lulu (al-Fateh Abdullah Idris) was released, insisting he remains detained while a special court prepares his trial. Nigeria–US Counterterrorism: Fresh joint strikes in the Lake Chad region followed the killing of ISIS’s Abu-Bilal al-Minuki, with officials saying more militants were hit and no personnel were harmed. Africa Diplomacy Theater: Macron’s Africa Forward Summit push in Kenya drew sharp backlash in coverage, as France tries to sell “partnership” amid shrinking influence in parts of Francophone Africa. Regional Trade Fix: Cameroon and Chad signed a deal to cut delays on the Douala–Kribi to N’Djamena cargo corridor using linked systems and electronic tracking.